50% of Glaciers in the Alps Will Completely Disappear by 2050 Due to 'Warm' Greenhouse Gases, Claim Experts

Glacier melting is one of the most prominent challenges being faced by ecosystems worldwide. The deterioration of glaciers alters the quantity of many components in the atmosphere, which could spell danger for the world. In 2019, a team of researchers predicted the state of glaciers in an important mountain range, stated the European Geoscience Union. Findings regarding this estimate were published in The Cryosphere.

The subject of the study was glaciers in the European Alps. Researchers claimed that under the context of a limited warming scenario, two-thirds of the glaciers in the region will be lost by 2100. The team further suggested that if global warming steadily elevates, then all of the ice will possibly evaporate by the same time. The team took into consideration the behavior and features of all 4000 glaciers in the region. Their analysis unveiled that between 2017 and 2050, 50% of the glacier volume will disappear. This change is possibly inevitable, as it is independent of the greenhouse gas emissions impacting the area. The damage facilitated until 2017 has already all but confirmed the deteriorating rate of glaciers for the upcoming decades.

The limited warming scenario reflects a situation in which greenhouse gas emissions will peak for some years after 2019 and then experience a decline. This scenario, called RCP2.6, will result in the level of added warming at the end of the century being below 2°C since pre-industrial levels. If this scenario becomes a reality, then the Alpine Glaciers will lose about 37 cubic kilometres, which is one-third of the present volume, as per the researchers. 

Researchers claimed that even though humanity has no control over how the glaciers will change between 2017 and 2050, the alterations after that are still under their power. "The future evolution of glaciers will strongly depend on how the climate will evolve," said study-leader Harry Zekollari, a researcher at ETH Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, now at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. "In case of a more limited warming, a far more substantial part of the glaciers could be saved," he continued.

For the analysis of these glaciers, the team employed certain computer models (combining ice flow and melt processes) and observational data, as per the study. Through the data, the team determined how all the ice bodies will transform in different possible future emission conditions. They concluded that if there is no improvement in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades, then the glaciers will almost fully disappear. "In this pessimistic case, the Alps will be mostly ice-free by 2100, with only isolated ice patches remaining at high elevation, representing 5% or less of the present-day ice volume," said Matthias Huss, a researcher at ETH Zurich and co-author of The Cryosphere study.

The team warned that the state of these glaciers needs to be prioritized because of the impact they produce on flora, fauna, and humans around them and worldwide. "Glaciers in the European Alps and their recent evolution are some of the clearest indicators of the ongoing changes in climate," says ETH Zurich senior co-author Daniel Farinotti. "The future of these glaciers is indeed at risk, but there is still a possibility to limit their future losses."