An 1100-Foot-Long Asteroid Is Hurtling Toward Earth — and the Space Rock Has Scientists Worried

Apophis: An Extraterrestrial Threat

NASA always keeps an eye out for extraterrestrial threats, and at present, the asteroid 99942 Apophis, with a size of 1,100 feet (340 meters) is giving them sleepless nights. According to the calculations done by experts at NASA, the asteroid is not likely to hit the Earth in 2029 or 2036, but a recent study states that the redirection of the asteroid is a possibility that researchers must not ignore, IFL Science reported. The study has been published in The Planetary Science Journal, and it claims that there is a possibility of collisions in space, and if it happens with Apophis, the likelihood of it hitting the Earth increases. 

Discovery of Apophis

Apophis was first spotted by experts in 2004. Researchers analyzed the asteroid and placed it at level 4 on the Torino impact hazard scale. Level 0 on this scale means that the possibility of impact with Earth is essentially negligible, while 10 would imply "a collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean." Level 4 is the highest level any extraterrestrial object has been assigned since NASA started monitoring potentially hazardous Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers," is how NASA describes level 4. "Current calculations give a one percent or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."

Ruling Out Collisions

Experts, through analysis, have ruled out the possibility of collisions in 2029, as well as in 2036 and 2068. In all their examinations experts have stated that there is a possibility of a close encounter between the Earth and the asteroid. They believe it is important to keep an eye on the asteroid, and its trajectory. This is where experts run into problems as it is very difficult to track space objects. As per the current calculations, Apophis is set to miss the earth in all these close encounters.

Redirection of Apophis Towards Earth

The study focuses on the possibility of Apophis colliding with a small object and having its trajectory redirected toward the Earth, IFL Science reported. In a prior study, Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert and co-author Ben Hyatt looked into Apophis along with other asteroids and determined that there was a small chance of a collision with material traveling with a few of the objects. In the present study, both of them try to find out what sized object would be needed to shift Apophis into an Earth-bound trajectory in 2029, as well as further down the line. They found out that the asteroid needs to alter just 0.6 meters (2 feet) in its voyage, to go into a trajectory that could result in a later impact with the Earth. An object sized around 3.4 meters (11.2 feet) would be enough to cause this route alteration.

Possibility of Such a Collision

Though such collisions do happen, in the case of Apophis, they are unlikely, according to researchers. Experts further claim that for the asteroid to enter into a trajectory where it would hit the Earth, it needs to be prodded into a particular direction. Weigert after taking into consideration the number of objects over 3.4 meters that impact Earth every year and then correcting for the size of Apophis (340 meters/1,100 feet), believes that the odds of an asteroid changing its trajectory and coming towards Earth between now and 2029 as exceptionally low. The odds of the asteroid charging towards the Earth after 2029 due to collision with an object is calculated at less than one in a million. Apophis will be again visible in 2027, and then it will become clear by observation whether it has been nudged towards Earth, as per Weigert.