Astronomers Spot a 196-Foot Asteroid, Predict It Could Strike Earth in 2032

Astronomers are keeping an eye on a 196-foot asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032. The extraterrestrial object has been named 2024 YR4, and as per current estimates has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December of 1932, stated Space. At present the asteroid is 27 million miles away from the planet. It was first spotted in 2024 by experts. 2024 YR4 was located through a NASA-funded project called ATLAS, with the help of a telescope placed in Rio Hurtado, Chile. The asteroid's size was calculated using its "absolute magnitude," or the quantity of light it reflected. Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter, David Rankin, garnered data regarding the asteroid from the Catalina Sky Survey.

After several examinations, researchers claimed that the asteroid would come within 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth. Though the distance seems large, the involvement of orbital uncertainties could very well turn this close approach into a direct strike, as per experts. Astronomers believe that the strike could result in a wide range of consequences—from 'airburst' to the creation of an impact crater.

These possible results have made scientists place asteroid 2024 YR4 at the helm of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table. The asteroid has also gotten three on the Torino risk scale, this means that over 1% chance of impact is present and the issue needs close observation from astronomers.

2024 YR4 was an intriguing finding for astronomers. The probable impact was one of the highest they have ever observed for such a large asteroid. "Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83," Rankin stated. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

Experts speculate that the area where the asteroid will likely hit will be somewhere from South America across the Atlantic to South Africa. Researchers though are not hugely concerned about the asteroid yet. "People should absolutely not worry about this yet," Rankin said. "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us." He further claimed that orbit uncertainties keep the estimation regarding the 2024 YR4 far from an absolute certainty. For experts, the more likely result of the asteroid is that it will miss the planet. To make concrete assertions better orbit calculations are needed, as per astronomers. 

Rankin also claimed that the speculated dangerous consequences of the asteroid may not also be that dire. To correctly guess its effect, more details regarding the asteroid's size and content are required. "Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location," Rankin said. "It's hard to constrain size and composition with the current orbital situation, as it's outbound. Typically, the best way to constrain size is with radar observations and those are not possible right now." These details can be collected in 2028 when the particular asteroid will be 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) away from Earth.