Biden or Trump: Does Historian with Near-Perfect Track Record Really Know Who Will Win Presidential Election?

Dr. Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for accurately predicting nine of the last ten general election outcomes, has shared his insights on the Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden race.

According to Knewz.com, the American University professor cautioned that while a guilty verdict may not definitively doom Trump, Democrats cannot afford to become complacent.

Dr. Lichtman’s predictions rely on his "Keys to the White House" model, developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, based on an analysis of presidential elections since 1860. He attributes his success to maintaining objectivity and excluding personal biases from his predictions.

The "Keys" consist of 13 true or false questions, which have enabled Dr. Lichtman to accurately forecast significant election outcomes, including President Barack Obama's re-election in 2012 and Donald Trump's victory in 2016, despite widespread expectations favoring their opponents. He also correctly predicted Joe Biden's win in 2020.

In an interview with Fox News, Dr. Lichtman emphasized that the "Keys" offer an alternative to polls and punditry, which he describes as unscientific and unreliable predictors. He views presidential elections in geophysical terms rather than as a binary competition between candidates or parties.

Explaining his methodology, Dr. Lichtman noted that a "true" answer to any of the "Keys" questions indicates the incumbent party retains power, while a "false" answer signals a potential shift in power, described as an "Earthquake." The 13 "Keys" include factors such as party mandate, incumbency, economy, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military successes and failures, and the charisma of the candidates.

Though he has not yet made a final prediction, Dr. Lichtman suggests that "a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose to Trump." However, Biden has already lost two "Keys" due to midterm election results and a lack of exceptional charisma.

According to Dr. Lichtman, losing more than six "Keys" would likely result in Biden being voted out of office. However, he also warns that replacing Biden with another Democrat could cost the party additional "Keys."

He highlighted four critical "Keys" to watch for Biden: the impact of a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning at least 10% support in national polls, social unrest related to Pro-Palestine college protests, and the success or failure of Biden's foreign policy amidst the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict.

Regarding Trump, Dr. Lichtman noted that his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has not significantly eroded his base. However, the reaction of voters outside his core supporters remains uncertain, particularly as the sentencing hearing on July 11 approaches, just before the Republican convention. Dr. Lichtman stressed the importance of long-term analysis over instant punditry in understanding election dynamics.